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One hundred years of attrition research (2017)

In a sentence

A century-spanning review of employee turnover theory and research that traces how scholarship moved from atheoretical cost-control studies to rich models of why people leave, why they stay, and how collective turnover shapes organizations.

Drawing on nearly 100 years of combined research experience, four leading turnover scholars chronicle the evolution of employee turnover research across six historical epochs, from the earliest practitioner cost studies of the 1910s through the foundational March-Simon, Mobley, and Price models, the unfolding-model 'counter revolution,' and the 21st-century rise of job embeddedness, attitudinal trajectories, and collective turnover. The review explains the key constructs (job satisfaction, perceived alternatives, quit intentions, shocks, embeddedness, and proximal withdrawal states) and the methodological advances (the standard research design, survival analysis, SEM, qualitative model-testing, and panel/random-coefficient modeling) that propelled the field. It is an indispensable map for anyone who wants to understand both why employees voluntarily sever employment ties and how to manage retention with evidence-based strategies.

The story it tells the reader

The reader A turnover scholar, HR strategist, or applied psychologist who wants to understand why employees leave or stay and how to predict and manage attrition.

External problem

Employee turnover is costly (90–200% of annual salary), disrupts productivity, drains human and social capital, and undermines organizational performance.

Internal problem

Researchers and managers feel overwhelmed by a sprawling, century-old literature and uncertain which theories, constructs, and methods are trustworthy and current.

Philosophical problem

Treating turnover as a simple, always-bad, individual, atheoretical event ignores the rich psychology of leaving and staying and squanders accumulated knowledge.

The plan

  1. Trace turnover scholarship chronologically across six clarifying epochs.
  2. Master the foundational constructs—satisfaction, alternatives, quit intentions, shocks, embeddedness.
  3. Adopt sound methodologies (standard research design, survival analysis, SEM, panel/trajectory models).
  4. Distinguish leaving from staying and functional from dysfunctional turnover.
  5. Apply context-rich, multilevel, and dynamic perspectives to predict and manage turnover.

Success

  • Researchers build cumulative, context-rich, dynamic theories that advance the field.
  • Managers identify who is leaving, why, and where they go, and intervene effectively.
  • Organizations retain high performers and central network actors and project performance impacts.
  • Both leaving and staying are understood and managed with evidence-based strategies.

At stake

  • Continued reliance on atheoretical, cross-sectional, direct-effect studies that miss key drivers.
  • Costly, performance-eroding attrition of valued talent goes unanticipated and unmanaged.
  • Loss of human and social capital, trade secrets, diversity, and competitive advantage.
  • Misguided across-the-board turnover reduction that ignores functional turnover.

Model of the world · 14 constructs · 18 relations

A synthesized causal model in which design levers/contextual conditions (HRM practices, realistic job previews, recruitment, labor market) influence psychological states (job satisfaction, organizational commitment, job embeddedness, perceived alternatives, quit intentions) and discrete events (shocks), which drive individual leaving/staying behaviors and aggregate to collective turnover affecting organizational performance.

Design levers

  • HRM Practices and Inducements
  • Realistic Recruitment and Onboarding (RJP)

Intermediate states & behaviors

  • Quit Intentions / Withdrawal Cognitions
  • Job Satisfaction
  • Organizational Commitment
  • Job Embeddedness
  • Job Search Behavior
  • +2 more

Outcomes

  • Individual Voluntary Turnover
  • Collective Turnover Rate
  • Organizational Performance

Moderators / context: Shocks (Jarring Events) · Labor Market and Job Opportunity Conditions

Consolidated shape of the book’s model — full constructs and relationships below.

HRM Practices and Inducementsdesign lever

Human resource management investments and employee-organization relationship inducements such as base pay, benefits, training, job security, justice, and high-involvement/high-commitment systems that organizations deploy to shape contributions and retention.

Realistic Recruitment and Onboarding (RJP)design lever

Recruitment and socialization design levers, including realistic job previews, work samples, orientation, and referral sourcing, intended to set accurate expectations and improve newcomer assimilation and retention.

Labor Market and Job Opportunity Conditionscontextual condition

Contextual external conditions such as unemployment rates, availability of alternative jobs, industry demand, and ease of movement that shape opportunities and the feasibility of leaving the current employer.

Job Satisfactionpsychological state

An employee's affective and evaluative attitude toward the job and its facets, conceptualized as the desirability of movement; dissatisfaction historically positioned as a prime psychological driver of turnover processes.

Organizational Commitmentpsychological state

An employee's psychological attachment, dedication, and sense of responsibility toward the organization, distinct from job satisfaction and explaining unique turnover variance through bonds of membership rather than task duties.

Perceived Job Alternatives / Ease of Movementpsychological state

An employee's subjective beliefs about the availability and attractiveness of alternative employment, reflecting March and Simon's ease of movement and feeding subjective expected utility comparisons of jobs.

Job Embeddednesspsychological state

A formative construct comprising on-the-job and off-the-job fit, links, and sacrifice (including community and family embeddedness) that enmesh employees in their job and surroundings, capturing forces for staying beyond attitudes.

Shocks (Jarring Events)contextual condition

Distinguishable, jarring events—positive or negative, work-related or external, expected or unexpected—that prompt thoughts of leaving and trigger specific turnover paths, central to the unfolding model of turnover.

Quit Intentions / Withdrawal Cognitionspsychological state

An employee's conscious intentions and cognitions about searching for and leaving the organization, considered the most proximal and strongest psychological antecedent of actual turnover behavior.

Job Search Behaviorbehavioral pattern

The evolutionary, multistage process by which employees move from passive labor-market scanning to active solicitation of employers, acquiring information, feedback, and job offers that enable or precede leaving.

Proximal Withdrawal State (Preference x Control)psychological state

An employee's mindset formed by crossing preference for leaving or staying with perceived control, yielding enthusiastic leavers, reluctant stayers, enthusiastic stayers, and reluctant leavers as distinct withdrawal states.

Individual Voluntary Turnoveroutcome metric

An individual employee's voluntary severance of employment ties with the organization, the focal behavioral outcome that may follow multiple paths including conventional, script-based, image-violation, and impulsive quits.

Collective Turnover Rateoutcome metric

The aggregate rate of employee turnover at the group, unit, or organizational level, reflecting human and social capital flight that cannot be fully synthesized from individual-level processes.

Organizational Performanceoutcome metric

Firm and unit-level effectiveness outcomes such as productivity, customer service quality, sales, profit, and financial performance that are disrupted by collective turnover, often in an attenuated-U relationship.

How they connect

  • hrm practices → predicts job satisfaction
  • hrm practices → predicts organizational commitment
  • hrm practices − predicts collective turnover
  • realistic job preview − predicts individual turnover
  • job satisfaction − predicts quit intentions
  • organizational commitment − predicts quit intentions
  • perceived alternatives → predicts quit intentions
  • job embeddedness − predicts individual turnover
  • job embeddedness − moderates shocks
  • shocks → predicts quit intentions
  • shocks → predicts individual turnover
  • quit intentions → predicts job search
  • job search → predicts individual turnover
  • quit intentions → predicts individual turnover
  • proximal withdrawal state → predicts individual turnover
  • labor market conditions → moderates quit intentions
  • individual turnover → predicts collective turnover
  • collective turnover − predicts organizational performance

Possible measures & feedback loops

A candidate team / org survey built from this book’s model — exploratory operationalizations, not validated instruments. Where a construct maps to a validated measure in Principia, we’ll point to that instead.

HRM Practices and Inducements

compensation/benefit data; training spend; presence of teams/justice policies; perceived support indices

self-report suitability: medium

Realistic Recruitment and Onboarding (RJP)

program presence/content codes; met-expectations ratings; early-tenure retention

self-report suitability: medium

Labor Market and Job Opportunity Conditions

unemployment rates; vacancy counts; industry growth indices

self-report suitability: low

Job Satisfaction

validated satisfaction scale scores; facet ratings; satisfaction trajectories

self-report suitability: high

Organizational Commitment

commitment scale scores; commitment trajectory

self-report suitability: high

Perceived Job Alternatives / Ease of Movement

perceived alternatives ratings; perceived employability ratings

self-report suitability: high

Job Embeddedness

composite fit/links/sacrifice index; number of ties; benefits at risk; relatives nearby

self-report suitability: high

Shocks (Jarring Events)

coded event classifications; event logs; path-matching codes

self-report suitability: medium

Quit Intentions / Withdrawal Cognitions

intention scale scores; withdrawal cognition ratings

self-report suitability: high

Job Search Behavior

applications/interviews counts; search intensity ratings; offers obtained

self-report suitability: high

Proximal Withdrawal State (Preference x Control)

preference ratings; perceived control ratings; state classification

self-report suitability: high

Individual Voluntary Turnover

recorded voluntary quit; survival/hazard timing; path classification

self-report suitability: low

Collective Turnover Rate

turnover rate; trajectory; good vs poor performer rates; network-central exits

self-report suitability: none

Organizational Performance

sales/profit; customer wait time; service quality; financial returns

self-report suitability: none

Preview the survey →

Frameworks & instruments in this book

  • Theory-driven research using sound psychometric measures and prospective designs advances cumulative knowledge.
  • Measurement correspondence, base rates, time lag, and labor-market context condition the predictability of turnover.
  • Both leaving and staying require explanation; proximal psychological states mediate distal causes.
  • Context and contingencies matter—'one size fits all' models give way to condition-specific theorizing.
  • Turnover should be studied dynamically and across multiple levels of analysis.

Several of these are operationalized as tools in the People Analytics Toolbox.

Topics

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