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One hundred years of attrition research (2017)
In a sentence
A century-spanning review of employee turnover theory and research that traces how scholarship moved from atheoretical cost-control studies to rich models of why people leave, why they stay, and how collective turnover shapes organizations.
Drawing on nearly 100 years of combined research experience, four leading turnover scholars chronicle the evolution of employee turnover research across six historical epochs, from the earliest practitioner cost studies of the 1910s through the foundational March-Simon, Mobley, and Price models, the unfolding-model 'counter revolution,' and the 21st-century rise of job embeddedness, attitudinal trajectories, and collective turnover. The review explains the key constructs (job satisfaction, perceived alternatives, quit intentions, shocks, embeddedness, and proximal withdrawal states) and the methodological advances (the standard research design, survival analysis, SEM, qualitative model-testing, and panel/random-coefficient modeling) that propelled the field. It is an indispensable map for anyone who wants to understand both why employees voluntarily sever employment ties and how to manage retention with evidence-based strategies.
The four lenses
- Science
- Statistics
- Systems
- Strategy
Tags
The model
A synthesized causal model in which design levers/contextual conditions (HRM practices, realistic job previews, recruitment, labor market) influence psychological states (job satisfaction, organizational commitment, job embeddedness, perceived alternatives, quit intentions) and discrete events (shocks), which drive individual leaving/staying behaviors and aggregate to collective turnover affecting organizational performance.
HRM Practices and Inducementsdesign lever
Human resource management investments and employee-organization relationship inducements such as base pay, benefits, training, job security, justice, and high-involvement/high-commitment systems that organizations deploy to shape contributions and retention.
Realistic Recruitment and Onboarding (RJP)design lever
Recruitment and socialization design levers, including realistic job previews, work samples, orientation, and referral sourcing, intended to set accurate expectations and improve newcomer assimilation and retention.
Labor Market and Job Opportunity Conditionscontextual condition
Contextual external conditions such as unemployment rates, availability of alternative jobs, industry demand, and ease of movement that shape opportunities and the feasibility of leaving the current employer.
Job Satisfactionpsychological state
An employee's affective and evaluative attitude toward the job and its facets, conceptualized as the desirability of movement; dissatisfaction historically positioned as a prime psychological driver of turnover processes.
Organizational Commitmentpsychological state
An employee's psychological attachment, dedication, and sense of responsibility toward the organization, distinct from job satisfaction and explaining unique turnover variance through bonds of membership rather than task duties.
Perceived Job Alternatives / Ease of Movementpsychological state
An employee's subjective beliefs about the availability and attractiveness of alternative employment, reflecting March and Simon's ease of movement and feeding subjective expected utility comparisons of jobs.
Job Embeddednesspsychological state
A formative construct comprising on-the-job and off-the-job fit, links, and sacrifice (including community and family embeddedness) that enmesh employees in their job and surroundings, capturing forces for staying beyond attitudes.
Shocks (Jarring Events)contextual condition
Distinguishable, jarring events—positive or negative, work-related or external, expected or unexpected—that prompt thoughts of leaving and trigger specific turnover paths, central to the unfolding model of turnover.
Quit Intentions / Withdrawal Cognitionspsychological state
An employee's conscious intentions and cognitions about searching for and leaving the organization, considered the most proximal and strongest psychological antecedent of actual turnover behavior.
Job Search Behaviorbehavioral pattern
The evolutionary, multistage process by which employees move from passive labor-market scanning to active solicitation of employers, acquiring information, feedback, and job offers that enable or precede leaving.
Proximal Withdrawal State (Preference x Control)psychological state
An employee's mindset formed by crossing preference for leaving or staying with perceived control, yielding enthusiastic leavers, reluctant stayers, enthusiastic stayers, and reluctant leavers as distinct withdrawal states.
Individual Voluntary Turnoveroutcome metric
An individual employee's voluntary severance of employment ties with the organization, the focal behavioral outcome that may follow multiple paths including conventional, script-based, image-violation, and impulsive quits.
Collective Turnover Rateoutcome metric
The aggregate rate of employee turnover at the group, unit, or organizational level, reflecting human and social capital flight that cannot be fully synthesized from individual-level processes.
Organizational Performanceoutcome metric
Firm and unit-level effectiveness outcomes such as productivity, customer service quality, sales, profit, and financial performance that are disrupted by collective turnover, often in an attenuated-U relationship.
How they connect
- hrm practices → predicts job satisfaction
- hrm practices → predicts organizational commitment
- hrm practices − predicts collective turnover
- realistic job preview − predicts individual turnover
- job satisfaction − predicts quit intentions
- organizational commitment − predicts quit intentions
- perceived alternatives → predicts quit intentions
- job embeddedness − predicts individual turnover
- job embeddedness − moderates shocks
- shocks → predicts quit intentions
- shocks → predicts individual turnover
- quit intentions → predicts job search
- job search → predicts individual turnover
- quit intentions → predicts individual turnover
- proximal withdrawal state → predicts individual turnover
- labor market conditions → moderates quit intentions
- individual turnover → predicts collective turnover
- collective turnover − predicts organizational performance
The process
This book provides a comprehensive playbook for understanding, researching, and managing employee turnover. The overall process begins with applying foundational cognitive models to understand the 'why' behind an employee's decision to leave. Practitioners can then move to proactive, practical steps like validating predictive hiring assessments to screen for retention risk. For a deeper understanding, the playbook outlines a sophisticated, multi-layered research methodology, starting with a standard longitudinal design and progressively incorporating dynamic changes in turnover antecedents, contextual factors, and nuanced employee mindsets. The framework extends beyond an employee's departure, offering a process to analyze post-turnover outcomes. Finally, the playbook culminates in a process for systematically evaluating the effectiveness of turnover management strategies, enabling organizations to close the loop and implement evidence-based retention practices.
Analyze the Employee Turnover Decision Process
To understand and map the cognitive sequence an employee follows from job dissatisfaction to the final decision to quit, enabling targeted retention interventions.
When to use: When diagnosing the root causes of turnover within a team or organization to inform retention strategy.
Step 1Identify job dissatisfaction as the initial trigger for turnover consideration.
Entry: An employee is experiencing dissatisfaction with their job.
Exit: Dissatisfaction is significant enough to provoke thoughts of quitting.
In: Employee job satisfaction data · Out: Identification of dissatisfied employees
ch02
Step 2Trace the progression from dissatisfaction to thoughts of quitting.
Entry: Job dissatisfaction has been identified.
Exit: The employee is actively thinking about leaving.
Out: Assessment of quitting ideation
ch02
Step 3Evaluate the employee's calculation of the expected utility of searching for a new job and comparing alternatives.
Entry: The employee is considering quitting.
Exit: A comparison between the current job and potential alternatives has been made.
- Is the perceived benefit of searching for a new job high enough to proceed?
In: Labor market conditions, Perceived job opportunities · Out: Evaluation of job alternatives
ch02
Step 4Assess the employee's formulation of a clear intention to quit.
Entry: Comparison of alternatives favors leaving.
Exit: A firm intention to quit is established.
Out: Intention to quit
ch02
Step 5Observe the final action of leaving the organization.
Entry: Intention to quit has been formed.
Exit: The employee has voluntarily terminated their employment.
Out: Employee turnover event
ch02
Validate Predictive Hiring Assessments for Turnover
To empirically validate whether pre-hire assessment tools, such as a weighted application blank (WAB), can effectively predict future employee turnover.
When to use: When developing or refining a hiring process to reduce future turnover by selecting candidates with a higher likelihood of staying.
Step 1Develop a weighted application blank (WAB) or other selection test with items hypothesized to predict tenure.
Entry: A need to improve hiring to reduce turnover.
Exit: A draft assessment tool is ready for testing.
- Which predictor items to include in the initial assessment.
In: Hypotheses about turnover predictors · Out: Weighted application blank (WAB) or other selection test
ch02
Step 2Administer the assessment to new hires and collect turnover data over a defined period.
Entry: The assessment tool is finalized.
Exit: Sufficient time has passed to collect meaningful turnover data for the cohort.
In: Assessment responses from new hires · Out: Post-hire turnover data
ch02
Step 3Analyze the data to identify which assessment items correlate with actual turnover.
Entry: A complete dataset of assessment scores and turnover outcomes is available.
Exit: A list of statistically significant predictor items is generated.
- Which items demonstrate a strong enough correlation to be considered valid predictors.
In: Assessment data, Turnover data · Out: Validated predictor items
ch02
Step 4Refine the assessment tool based on the validation findings.
Entry: Predictive validity of all items has been analyzed.
Exit: A refined, validated assessment tool is ready for use in hiring.
In: Analysis results · Out: A refined WAB or selection test
ch02
Conduct Longitudinal Turnover Research
To empirically investigate the predictors and dynamics of employee turnover over time, incorporating changes in antecedents and contextual factors for more accurate models.
When to use: When an organization or researcher needs to build a deep, evidence-based understanding of the factors driving turnover in a specific setting.
Step 1Identify and define key turnover antecedents and contextual factors for the study.
Entry: A research question about turnover has been formulated.
Exit: A clear set of variables for the study is defined.
- Which antecedents and contextual factors to include in the study.
In: Existing turnover research and theories · Out: A defined research model
ch02 · ch08
Step 2Collect data on predictors and antecedents at an initial point in time (Time 1).
Entry: The research model and measures are finalized.
Exit: Baseline data for all participants is collected.
In: Job satisfaction measures, Demographic information questionnaires · Out: Time 1 dataset of predictor variables
ch02 · ch08
Step 3Gather data on employee turnover at a subsequent point in time (Time 2).
Entry: A sufficient time interval has passed since Time 1 data collection.
Exit: Turnover status for all participants is recorded.
- How long the interval between data collection points should be.
In: Employee records · Out: Turnover outcome data
ch02
Step 4Analyze correlations between initial predictors, their trajectories, and turnover outcomes.
Entry: Complete longitudinal dataset (Time 1 and Time 2) is available.
Exit: Statistical analysis is complete and significant predictors are identified.
In: Longitudinal dataset · Out: Validated predictive models of turnover, Context-rich research findings
ch02 · ch08
Classify Employee Turnover Mindsets
To differentiate between the various psychological states or mindsets employees have about leaving or staying, providing a more nuanced understanding of turnover motivations.
When to use: As part of a detailed turnover analysis to understand the different reasons people stay or leave, beyond simple satisfaction scores.
Step 1Define key antecedents that differentiate mindsets, such as perceived control and preference for leaving or staying.
Entry: A need for a deeper understanding of turnover motivations is identified.
Exit: The dimensions for classification are clearly defined.
In: Turnover theories (e.g., Proximal Withdrawal States Theory) · Out: A classification framework
ch08
Step 2Collect data from employees on the defined antecedents.
Entry: The classification framework is established.
Exit: Sufficient employee data on the key dimensions is collected.
In: Employee surveys, Qualitative interview guides · Out: Dataset of employee sentiments and intentions
ch08
Step 3Classify employees into distinct categories based on their responses.
Entry: Employee data has been collected.
Exit: Each employee in the sample is assigned to a mindset category.
- How to categorize employees based on their data profiles.
In: Dataset of employee sentiments and intentions · Out: A segmented view of the workforce by turnover mindset
ch08
Step 4Analyze the distribution and characteristics of each category to inform retention strategies.
Entry: Employees have been classified.
Exit: Actionable insights for retention are derived from the analysis.
In: Segmented workforce data · Out: Targeted retention strategy recommendations
ch08
Investigate Post-Turnover Outcomes
To understand the consequences of turnover by examining the career paths and decisions of employees after they leave an organization.
When to use: When an organization wants to improve its alumni relations, understand its reputation as a former employer, or explore the potential of re-hiring past employees.
Step 1Identify and segment former employees.
Entry: A need to understand the aftermath of turnover.
Exit: A list of former employees is segmented into relevant groups.
- How to classify former employees based on their post-employment decisions.
In: Employee turnover data, Rehire records · Out: Segmented list of former employees
ch08
Step 2Analyze the motivations and circumstances surrounding the departures for each group.
Entry: Former employees have been segmented.
Exit: The reasons for departure for each segment are understood.
In: Exit interview data, Qualitative interviews with former employees · Out: Analysis of departure motivations
ch08
Step 3Study the 'turnover destinations' to understand the alternative paths employees take.
Entry: Departure motivations have been analyzed.
Exit: A clear picture of post-turnover career paths is developed.
In: Data on post-employment experiences · Out: Insights into turnover destinations and consequences
ch08
Evaluate Turnover Management Strategies
To systematically identify, analyze, and determine the effectiveness of practices and strategies used by organizations to manage and reduce employee turnover.
When to use: To make evidence-based decisions about which retention strategies to invest in, continue, or discontinue.
Step 1Identify and document the turnover management practices currently in use.
Entry: A need to assess the effectiveness of current retention efforts.
Exit: A comprehensive list of current turnover management practices is compiled.
In: Organizational policy documents, Interviews with HR managers · Out: Compendium of existing retention strategies
ch08
Step 2Collect data on the implementation of these strategies and corresponding turnover rates.
Entry: Retention strategies have been identified.
Exit: A dataset linking strategies to outcomes is created.
In: Data on turnover management practices, Employee feedback, Performance and turnover metrics · Out: Dataset for effectiveness analysis
ch08
Step 3Analyze the effectiveness of the strategies using quantitative and qualitative methods.
Entry: A complete dataset is available.
Exit: The impact of each strategy on turnover is quantified and understood.
- Determining the criteria for measuring success.
In: Dataset for effectiveness analysis · Out: An evidence-based report on the effectiveness of retention strategies, Recommendations for future investment in retention
ch08
A candidate measure
One hundred years of attrition research (2017) — derived measurement candidates
HRM Practices and Inducements
compensation/benefit data; training spend; presence of teams/justice policies; perceived support indices
self-report suitability: medium
Realistic Recruitment and Onboarding (RJP)
program presence/content codes; met-expectations ratings; early-tenure retention
self-report suitability: medium
Labor Market and Job Opportunity Conditions
unemployment rates; vacancy counts; industry growth indices
self-report suitability: low
Job Satisfaction
validated satisfaction scale scores; facet ratings; satisfaction trajectories
self-report suitability: high
Organizational Commitment
commitment scale scores; commitment trajectory
self-report suitability: high
Perceived Job Alternatives / Ease of Movement
perceived alternatives ratings; perceived employability ratings
self-report suitability: high
Job Embeddedness
composite fit/links/sacrifice index; number of ties; benefits at risk; relatives nearby
self-report suitability: high
Shocks (Jarring Events)
coded event classifications; event logs; path-matching codes
self-report suitability: medium
Quit Intentions / Withdrawal Cognitions
intention scale scores; withdrawal cognition ratings
self-report suitability: high
Job Search Behavior
applications/interviews counts; search intensity ratings; offers obtained
self-report suitability: high
Proximal Withdrawal State (Preference x Control)
preference ratings; perceived control ratings; state classification
self-report suitability: high
Individual Voluntary Turnover
recorded voluntary quit; survival/hazard timing; path classification
self-report suitability: low
Collective Turnover Rate
turnover rate; trajectory; good vs poor performer rates; network-central exits
self-report suitability: none
Organizational Performance
sales/profit; customer wait time; service quality; financial returns
self-report suitability: none
The story
The reader A turnover scholar, HR strategist, or applied psychologist who wants to understand why employees leave or stay and how to predict and manage attrition.
External problem
Employee turnover is costly (90–200% of annual salary), disrupts productivity, drains human and social capital, and undermines organizational performance.
Internal problem
Researchers and managers feel overwhelmed by a sprawling, century-old literature and uncertain which theories, constructs, and methods are trustworthy and current.
Philosophical problem
Treating turnover as a simple, always-bad, individual, atheoretical event ignores the rich psychology of leaving and staying and squanders accumulated knowledge.
The plan
- Trace turnover scholarship chronologically across six clarifying epochs.
- Master the foundational constructs—satisfaction, alternatives, quit intentions, shocks, embeddedness.
- Adopt sound methodologies (standard research design, survival analysis, SEM, panel/trajectory models).
- Distinguish leaving from staying and functional from dysfunctional turnover.
- Apply context-rich, multilevel, and dynamic perspectives to predict and manage turnover.
Success
- Researchers build cumulative, context-rich, dynamic theories that advance the field.
- Managers identify who is leaving, why, and where they go, and intervene effectively.
- Organizations retain high performers and central network actors and project performance impacts.
- Both leaving and staying are understood and managed with evidence-based strategies.
At stake
- Continued reliance on atheoretical, cross-sectional, direct-effect studies that miss key drivers.
- Costly, performance-eroding attrition of valued talent goes unanticipated and unmanaged.
- Loss of human and social capital, trade secrets, diversity, and competitive advantage.
- Misguided across-the-board turnover reduction that ignores functional turnover.
Chapter by chapter
ch01Introduction
This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of a century's worth of research on employee turnover, highlighting the evolution of theoretical frameworks and their implications for organizational practice.
ch02The Birth of Turnover Research
The chapter traces the historical development of turnover research from its empirical origins in the 1920s to key theoretical frameworks established in the subsequent decades, emphasizing the evolution of predictive models and the role of job satisfaction.
- Turnover research has evolved significantly since the 1920s, with numerous models and insights born from empirical studies that laid the foundation for understanding workforce dynamics.
- The relationship between job satisfaction and employee turnover is a key theme across decades of research, emphasizing that enhanced job conditions can lead to improved retention.
- Understanding collective turnover is essential for organizations today, as the dynamics within work units can critically influence overall turnover rates and organizational performance.
- Theoretical models like Mobley's serve as frameworks that capture the complexities of employee decision-making, highlighting the need for organizations to consider both psychological and rational factors influencing turnover.
ch08Looking Back
This chapter reflects on a century of turnover research in organizational psychology and proposes future directions for studying the nuances of employee turnover.
- Understanding turnover is a dynamic process that requires continuous adaptation of theories and methods.
- Traditional views of turnover often ignore the complexities of employee experiences that include diverse motivations for leaving or staying.
- Dynamic constructs, such as job satisfaction trajectories, provide significant predictive power regarding turnover intentions and actions.
- A focus on post-employment implications reveals that the consequences of turnover extend far beyond the point of departure, impacting organizational culture and future hiring practices.
Questions this book answers
- Why do employees voluntarily leave their jobs?
- Why do employees stay rather than leave?
- How has turnover theory and methodology evolved over 100 years?
- What individual psychological and decision processes lead to quitting?
- How does collective (unit/organizational) turnover affect organizational performance?
Glossary
- HRM Practices and Inducements
- Organizational human resource investments and employment-relationship inducements designed to attract, retain, and motivate employees.
- Realistic Recruitment and Onboarding (RJP)
- Recruitment and socialization design that conveys accurate job information to align newcomer expectations and improve retention.
- Labor Market and Job Opportunity Conditions
- External economic and industry conditions that determine the availability of alternative employment and ease of movement.
- Job Satisfaction
- The affective and evaluative attitude an employee holds toward the job and its facets, reflecting desirability of movement.
- Organizational Commitment
- An employee's psychological attachment, identification, and responsibility toward the organization.
- Perceived Job Alternatives / Ease of Movement
- An employee's subjective beliefs about the availability and attractiveness of alternative jobs.
- Job Embeddedness
- The web of on- and off-the-job forces (fit, links, sacrifice) that enmesh employees and deter leaving.
- Shocks (Jarring Events)
- Distinguishable jarring events that prompt thoughts of leaving and activate specific turnover paths.
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Tools these methods power
Related in the literature
The measurement literature behind this signal — sourced, so you can defend it.
“Several studies explored mechanisms between turnover rates and organizational performance and/or moderators of these effects. Kacmar, Andrews, van Rooy, Steil- berg, and Cerrone (2006) showed that high supervisory and crew turnover at fast-food restaurants lower store sales and…”
— One Hundred Years of Attrition Research 2017 Ocrmatch 56%
“Armed with that new information, the actions that are doing nothing to reduce attrition can be run out of town, making room for actions that will actually help you reduce attrition. In this chapter, I point out common misconceptions about employee attrition, show you a better…”
— People Analytics For Dummiesmatch 53%
“First, Mathur need to derive a simple model to measure and predict attrition, put in place programs to fix it, and finally measure its impact and share the findings. Instead of spending time to get perfect data, Mathur built an attrition model with 20 points of employee data…”
— Predictive HR Analyticsmatch 52%
Resources: One Hundred Years of Attrition Research 2017 Ocr · People Analytics For Dummies · Predictive HR Analytics