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Cohort-similarity career-pathing over a skill ontology (US20200372473A1, public-domain)

Recommends a person's likely/feasible NEXT ROLES from a corpus of historical role transitions, ranked by cohort similarity over the skill graph, with the skill gaps to close for each. Given a current role + weighted skill profile and a transition corpus (from->to + each mover's skills + count): represents the person and every mover's origin profile as a sparse skill vector over the shared skill ontology, computes cohort similarity = cosine(person, mover) (no-skills movers get a small floor), keeps movers >= minCohortSimilarity (the cohort "people like you"), ranks destination roles by similarity-weighted move-share (the cohort's share of onward moves into that role), and for each destination emits the skill gaps = cohort prevalence - held weight (clamped >=0), largest first. The public-domain implementation of US20200372473A1's roles-as-skill-nodes + learned role-transition cohorts, via standard cohort/cosine-similarity methods. COMPLEMENTS (does not duplicate) career-development (taxonomy/coordinate ladders+lattices over the canon, no behavioral data) and job-family-agent (candidate<->role matching / single-role fit): this is pathing by behavioral DATA — "what did people with a profile like yours actually move into next?". A unique profile with no similar movers returns an honest empty/sparse result. Pure / deterministic / stateless; the transition corpus is posted in the request (no live source, no API key, nothing persisted).

Cluster
Platform
Type
algo
Status
Building
Used by
Not yet integrated into a consumer product

Maturity evidence

Functioning
core/cohort-pathing.ts (cosine cohort similarity over the skill graph -> similarity-weighted destination move-share ranking -> per-destination skill gaps) + REST (POST /api/spokes/career-pathing/recommend-next-roles, service-key gated, empty body -> seeded example) + MCP (career-pathing.recommend-next-roles) wired from one contract (contracts/types.ts 0.1.0); 6 passing tests (npx tsx --test src/spokes/career-pathing/tests/cohort-pathing.test.ts) incl. cohort match -> destination ranked first + correct skill gaps (held skills excluded), unique profile -> honest empty, determinism, topK, empty-cohort safety, cosine helper; check:spokes career-pathing (0 required gaps) + check:standards green; scoped tsc clean over changed files.
Valuable
Empirical next-role pathing routed from the patent-radar sweep (US20200372473A1, public-domain -> no legal gate): turns a profile + a historical transition corpus into ranked, evidence-based next-roles + the skills to close. The net-new behavioral-data layer alongside career-development (taxonomy) + job-family-agent (matching). No live consumer wiring yet.
Understood
spoke README (synthesis decision vs career-development + vs job-family-agent, mermaid: profile + transition corpus -> cohort similarity over skill graph -> ranked next-roles + gaps, patent posture) + docs/SURFACE.md (8-section) + CHANGELOG 0.1.0.
Integrated
REST + MCP from one declaration on branch feat/career-pathing-us20200372473a1 (PR open, NOT merged); new career-pathing spoke wired into contracts/registry.ts, mcp/register-tools.ts, mcp/discovery.ts, health/aggregate.ts, drizzle.config TOOLBOX_SCHEMAS, src/db/schema.ts. No live consumer wiring yet.

How to use it

REST
/api/spokes/career-pathing/recommend-next-roles
MCP
career-pathing.recommend-next-roles
Data
src/spokes/career-pathing/core/cohort-pathing.ts
Capability docs

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Capability detail sourced from the People Analytics Toolbox capability feed (source of truth), snapshot retrieved 2026-07-23.