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Causal-discovery KPI dependency engine (US11620601B2 design-around)

Constraint-based causal-structure recovery over a single block of tabular workforce/KPI data from ordinary ETL: the PUBLISHED PC algorithm (Spirtes/Glymour/Scheines) with partial-correlation Fisher-z conditional-independence tests builds a KPI DEPENDENCY GRAPH (skeleton + v-structure/collider orientation -> a CPDAG subset) and a LEVERAGE RANKING of drivers by their DIRECT (partial) effect on a named outcome KPI -- a confounded/mediated correlation (X _||_ Z | Y) is NOT scored as a direct driver. Deterministic, stateless, pure compute; no external service, no API key. IP-clean design-around of in-force US11620601B2: published causal-discovery on standard ETL, explicitly NOT the patent's integrated multi-engine value-graph platform with multi-source ingestion and continuous ML retraining. The MULTIVARIATE complement to the bivariate calculus.key-driver importance screen (not a fork).

Cluster
Platform
Type
algo
Status
Building
Used by
Not yet integrated into a consumer product

Maturity evidence

Functioning
core/causal-discovery.ts (PC skeleton via partial-correlation Fisher-z CI tests + collider orientation + direct-effect leverage ranking) + REST (POST /api/spokes/causal-discovery/discover, service-key gated) + MCP (causal-discovery.discover) wired from one contract; 11 passing tests (tsx --test src/spokes/causal-discovery/tests/causal-discovery.test.ts) incl. chain X->Y->Z recovery, confounded non-edge (X _||_ Z | Y), leverage ranking, determinism, degenerate cases, collider orientation; changed-files typecheck clean, check:spokes (0 required gaps) + check:standards green.
Valuable
Multivariate dependency-graph + direct-leverage capability routed from the patent-radar sweep; complements the bivariate calculus.key-driver screen (which cannot tell a direct cause from a confounded correlation). No live consumer yet, and IN-FORCE patent -- pending legal review on the non-infringement path before any commercial use.
Understood
spoke README (claim-vs-design-around table, synthesis decision vs calculus.key-driver, mermaid of tabular ETL -> causal discovery -> KPI dependency graph -> leverage ranking) + docs/SURFACE.md + CHANGELOG.
Integrated
REST + MCP from one declaration on branch feat/causal-value-graph-us11620601b2 (PR open, NOT merged); registry + discovery + register-tools + health-aggregate + drizzle + db-barrel wired. No live consumer wiring yet.

How to use it

REST
/api/spokes/causal-discovery/discover
MCP
causal-discovery.discover
Data
src/spokes/causal-discovery/core/causal-discovery.ts

Other Platform capabilities

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Capability detail sourced from the People Analytics Toolbox capability feed (source of truth), snapshot retrieved 2026-07-23.