Overview
What this research program is and why it exists. The frame the rest of the work hangs on.
The Fourth & Two research program
Fourth & TwoforthcomingForthcoming — research arc to be designed.
research / arc / decision-support
Decision support under uncertainty
When the answer exists on a range, how do you make it executable for a decision-maker? Monte Carlo simulation, formal Value-of-Information analysis, regression-based surrogate calculators, scenario modeling at population scale, and the principal-issues framing that names the load-bearing measurement set every decision actually rests on.
Why this matters
The portable claim — what this arc lets you understand outside the surface domain.
The headline question executives bring to a planning cycle is rarely 'what is the answer' — it is 'what is the range of plausible answers, and how confident can I commit before more is known.' This arc is the methodological spine for any forced-choice point where the population, the inputs, or the future are themselves uncertain. Fourth & Two applies it to fantasy decisions; the People Analytics Platform applies it to compensation; the principal-issues thesis names why most domains fail to do this at all.
Spans
Products this arc cuts through. Each application is sometimes the lead empirical apparatus, sometimes the funding/data-collection platform.
Drill-down — full arc surface
Cross-product. Source application shown on each entry.
Methodology
How the work is done — instruments, protocols, the standards each report inherits.
Methodology
Fourth & Twoforthcoming
Reports
The actual research findings — phased results, research-question briefs, applied analyses.
Decisions under uncertainty in fantasy
Fourth & TwoforthcomingAnticipated thread — Monte Carlo decision support, principal-issues-set framing.
The principal-issues thesis
People Analytics ToolboxforthcomingAnticipated headline thread — load-bearing analytics, the Three A's, NAV, why most companies cannot do people analytics. Draft v3 exists locally and is being prepared for publication.
Audience tiers
The same headline research surfaced four ways: peer-review, engineering, general audience, product.
General-audience explainer
Fourth & TwoGeneral audience · forthcomingPeer-review framing
Fourth & TwoPeer-review framing · forthcoming
Bibliography
Field positioning — formal references and literature maps grounding the research threads.
Literature map
Fourth & Twoforthcoming
Preregistrations & protocols
Studies and intervention protocols filed before execution.
Preregistration(s)
Fourth & Twoforthcoming