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Phase 6 — phonetic spillover

Namesake·Reports·source: people-analyst/baby-namer/docs/research/reports/phase6_phonetic_spillover.md

title: "Phonetic Spillover Analysis" description: "Phase 6: phonetic neighborhood cross-correlation, clusters, Granger tests, and spillover magnitudes vs SSA panel." publishedAt: "2026-04-10" status: published authors: ["Mike West"] featured: true

Phase 6 — Phonetic Spillover Analysis

Generated: 2026-04-12 00:48 UTC Sources: phonetic_spillover_results.parquet, phonetic_clusters.parquet, .phase6_checkpoint.json (random control + Welch test).

Key Findings

  • Phonetic pairs (rows): 166,046
  • Mean cross-correlation (phonetic pairs): 0.183707
  • Median cross-correlation (phonetic pairs): 0.348612
  • Mean cross-correlation (random control, n=1000): 0.065518
  • Welch t-statistic (phonetic vs random): 7.207297
  • p-value (two-sided): 1.11359e-12
  • Clusters: 1,221

Classification Breakdown (table)

Pairwise correlation summary

MetricValue
Phonetic pairs166,046
Mean |cross-correlation| (phonetic)0.183707
Median (phonetic)0.348612
Mean (random control)0.065518
Welch t7.207297
p-value1.11359e-12

Top 5 clusters by avg_correlation

cluster_namesizeavg_correlation
Idamae30.966704
Ayako30.955235
Buford30.938512
Jerad30.929772
Adolphus30.928625

Methodology Notes

  • phonetic_spillover_results.parquet columns: name_a, name_b, edge_weight, cross_correlation, optimal_lag, granger_p_value, spillover_magnitude.
  • phonetic_clusters.parquet columns: cluster_id, cluster_name, member_names, size, avg_correlation, leader_name, leader_peak_year.
  • Welch t-test: uses stored control_corrs and t_test from .phase6_checkpoint.json when present; otherwise recomputed from control correlations and phonetic-pair cross_correlation.