Phase 6 — phonetic spillover
Namesake·Reports·source: people-analyst/baby-namer/docs/research/reports/phase6_phonetic_spillover.md
title: "Phonetic Spillover Analysis" description: "Phase 6: phonetic neighborhood cross-correlation, clusters, Granger tests, and spillover magnitudes vs SSA panel." publishedAt: "2026-04-10" status: published authors: ["Mike West"] featured: true
Phase 6 — Phonetic Spillover Analysis
Generated: 2026-04-12 00:48 UTC
Sources: phonetic_spillover_results.parquet, phonetic_clusters.parquet, .phase6_checkpoint.json (random control + Welch test).
Key Findings
- Phonetic pairs (rows): 166,046
- Mean cross-correlation (phonetic pairs): 0.183707
- Median cross-correlation (phonetic pairs): 0.348612
- Mean cross-correlation (random control, n=1000): 0.065518
- Welch t-statistic (phonetic vs random): 7.207297
- p-value (two-sided): 1.11359e-12
- Clusters: 1,221
Classification Breakdown (table)
Pairwise correlation summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Phonetic pairs | 166,046 |
| Mean |cross-correlation| (phonetic) | 0.183707 |
| Median (phonetic) | 0.348612 |
| Mean (random control) | 0.065518 |
| Welch t | 7.207297 |
| p-value | 1.11359e-12 |
Top 5 clusters by avg_correlation
| cluster_name | size | avg_correlation |
|---|---|---|
| Idamae | 3 | 0.966704 |
| Ayako | 3 | 0.955235 |
| Buford | 3 | 0.938512 |
| Jerad | 3 | 0.929772 |
| Adolphus | 3 | 0.928625 |
Methodology Notes
- phonetic_spillover_results.parquet columns:
name_a,name_b,edge_weight,cross_correlation,optimal_lag,granger_p_value,spillover_magnitude. - phonetic_clusters.parquet columns:
cluster_id,cluster_name,member_names,size,avg_correlation,leader_name,leader_peak_year. - Welch t-test: uses stored
control_corrsandt_testfrom.phase6_checkpoint.jsonwhen present; otherwise recomputed from control correlations and phonetic-paircross_correlation.