← HR Metrics·Workforce Planning
Attrition Forecast
Predicted attrition for upcoming periods
How it’s computed
MODEL(attrition_trends)
What the evidence shows
Evidence (effect sizes, priors, validity) is syncing from Principia.
What this metric can show you
Attrition Forecast can tell roughly 25 pre-built stories — each a designed scene the data either confirms or it doesn’t. Bring your numbers and the Story Finder runs every one of these shapes against them.
specific to workforce planning
{mover} is becoming a bigger share of who you are
workforce-composition · T1
{mover} is fading from the mix
workforce-composition · T1
One unit is over-managed
workforce-composition · T1
Retention is working
retention · T1
Spans are stretched thin in one corner
workforce-composition · T1
The mix is holding steady
workforce-composition · T1
The organization you have isn't the one you had
workforce-composition · T1
universal shapes — any single metric can take these
A few large values are doing the talking
any focus · T1
A one-time event, not a trend
any focus · T1
It doesn't track — the premise is false
any focus · T1
It's concentrated — one group stands apart
any focus · T1
Scenes are pre-built; your data is the toggle. Browse the full deck or watch one play end-to-end in The Quiet Exodus.
Run it on your data
This metric is computed in the People Analytics Toolbox on your own numbers. See pricing — posted, no quotes.
sources: toolbox:metrics-catalog
What the literature says
The measurement literature behind this signal — sourced, so you can defend it.
“First, Mathur need to derive a simple model to measure and predict attrition, put in place programs to fix it, and finally measure its impact and share the findings. Instead of spending time to get perfect data, Mathur built an attrition model with 20 points of employee data…”
— Predictive HR Analyticsmatch 54%
“Whereas in the past, many doctors believed that fresh air and “bloodletting” was a useful solution for illness, today they have a more focused and data-driven approach. It’s also the same with employee attrition. Now, with the help of people analytics, you'll be able to more…”
— People Analytics For Dummiesmatch 53%
“Line managers wants to know what problems or opportunities will happen in the future, so that they can work to prevent them from occurring – this is where predictive employee turnover analytics (PETA) can add value. One of the hottest areas in business is the ability to predict…”
— Predictive HR Analyticsmatch 52%
Resources: Predictive HR Analytics · People Analytics For Dummies