← HR Metrics·Engagement & Retention
First-Year Turnover Rate
Turnover rate among employees with less than one year tenure
How it’s computed
COUNT(terms_under_1yr) / COUNT(hires)
What the evidence shows
Evidence (effect sizes, priors, validity) is syncing from Principia.
What this metric can show you
First-Year Turnover Rate can tell roughly 27 pre-built stories — each a designed scene the data either confirms or it doesn’t. Bring your numbers and the Story Finder runs every one of these shapes against them.
specific to engagement & retention
Engagement is eroding
engagement · T1
It's two companies, split by manager
leadership-quality · T1
Most are fine — a tail is struggling
engagement · T1
On this trajectory, you breach the benchmark
regretted-loss · T1
One condition is the binding constraint
cams · T1
One exit reason towers over the rest
exit-knowledge · T1
Retention is working
retention · T1
The workforce is splitting in two
engagement · T1
Top talent is quietly leaving
regretted-loss · T1
universal shapes — any single metric can take these
A few large values are doing the talking
any focus · T1
A one-time event, not a trend
any focus · T1
It doesn't track — the premise is false
any focus · T1
It's concentrated — one group stands apart
any focus · T1
Scenes are pre-built; your data is the toggle. Browse the full deck or watch one play end-to-end in The Quiet Exodus.
Run it on your data
This metric is computed in the People Analytics Toolbox on your own numbers. See pricing — posted, no quotes.
sources: toolbox:metrics-catalog · principia:metrics
What the literature says
The measurement literature behind this signal — sourced, so you can defend it.
“References: (1) Rachel Emma Silverman and Nikki Waller (2015) The Algorithm That Tells the Boss Who Might Quit. https://www.visier.com/the-algorithm-that-tells-the-boss-who-might-quit/ (26 November 2018) (2) Erik van Vulpen, Predictive Analytics in Human Resources - Tutorial and…”
— Predictive HR Analyticsmatch 55%
“A Clear Career Path and Good Pay, for Starters. https://www.glassdoor.com/research/why-do-employees-stay-a-clear-career-path-and-good-pay-for-starters/ (26 November 2018) (11) Vivian Giang (2016) Why Women Job Hop More Than Men.…”
— Predictive HR Analyticsmatch 55%
“A Clear Career Path and Good Pay, for Starters. https://www.glassdoor.com/research/why-do-employees-stay-a-clear-career-path-and-good-pay-for-starters/ (26 November 2018) 15.1) Case 1: AIHR – Turnover Predictors The below infographic from AIHR, categorizes why people quit into…”
— People Analytics Text Mining with Rmatch 51%
Resources: Predictive HR Analytics · People Analytics Text Mining with R