← HR Metrics·Engagement & Retention
Flight Risk Score
Predictive score for employee departure probability
How it’s computed
MODEL(features)
What the evidence shows
Evidence (effect sizes, priors, validity) is syncing from Principia.
What this metric can show you
Flight Risk Score can tell roughly 27 pre-built stories — each a designed scene the data either confirms or it doesn’t. Bring your numbers and the Story Finder runs every one of these shapes against them.
specific to engagement & retention
Engagement is eroding
engagement · T1
It's two companies, split by manager
leadership-quality · T1
Most are fine — a tail is struggling
engagement · T1
On this trajectory, you breach the benchmark
regretted-loss · T1
One condition is the binding constraint
cams · T1
One exit reason towers over the rest
exit-knowledge · T1
Retention is working
retention · T1
The workforce is splitting in two
engagement · T1
Top talent is quietly leaving
regretted-loss · T1
universal shapes — any single metric can take these
A few large values are doing the talking
any focus · T1
A one-time event, not a trend
any focus · T1
It doesn't track — the premise is false
any focus · T1
It's concentrated — one group stands apart
any focus · T1
Scenes are pre-built; your data is the toggle. Browse the full deck or watch one play end-to-end in The Quiet Exodus.
Run it on your data
This metric is computed in the People Analytics Toolbox on your own numbers. See pricing — posted, no quotes.
sources: toolbox:metrics-catalog
What the literature says
The measurement literature behind this signal — sourced, so you can defend it.
“In the table below, PETA computes risk scores for each employee and sums them into high risk groups, such as age groups, potential groups, salary groups, gender groups, tenure groups, performance groups. (1) Flight Risk Scoring [image "Flight risk scoring table"…”
— Predictive HR Analyticsmatch 68%
“One of the hottest areas in business is the ability to predict critical organizational risks such as key employee turnover, work accidents or absenteeism. (1) Instead of the usual reporting groups such as section, department or business unit, predictive employee turnover…”
— People Analytics Text Mining with Rmatch 65%
“Line managers wants to know what problems or opportunities will happen in the future, so that they can work to prevent them from occurring – this is where predictive employee turnover analytics (PETA) can add value. One of the hottest areas in business is the ability to predict…”
— Predictive HR Analyticsmatch 63%
Resources: Predictive HR Analytics · People Analytics Text Mining with R